Michael Gilliland The Business Forecasting Deal. Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions

Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance. Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.

3664.08 RUR

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Michael Gilliland Business Forecasting. Practical Problems and Solutions

A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

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Michael Clements P. A Companion to Economic Forecasting

A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

21126.24 RUR

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Sarah Watt Economic and Business Forecasting. Analyzing and Interpreting Econometric Results

Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the «ten commandments» for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.

5501.63 RUR

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Kostas Nikolopoulos I. Forecasting With The Theta Method. Theory and Applications

The first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting – one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method – Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R – open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.

9506.81 RUR

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Francesca Lazzeri Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python

Learn how to apply the principles of machine learning to  time series modeling with this indispensable resource   Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python  is an incisive and straightforward examination of one of the most crucial elements of decision-making in finance, marketing, education, and healthcare: time series modeling.  Despite the centrality of time series forecasting, few business analysts are familiar with the power or utility of applying machine learning to time series modeling. Author Francesca Lazzeri, a distinguished machine learning scientist and economist, corrects that deficiency by providing readers with comprehensive and approachable explanation and treatment of the application of machine learning to time series forecasting.  Written for readers who have little to no experience in time series forecasting or machine learning, the book comprehensively covers all the topics necessary to:  Understand time series forecasting concepts, such as stationarity, horizon, trend, and seasonality Prepare time series data for modeling Evaluate time series forecasting models’ performance and accuracy Understand when to use neural networks instead of traditional time series models in time series forecasting  Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python  is full real-world examples, resources and concrete strategies to help readers explore and transform data and develop usable, practical time series forecasts.  Perfect for entry-level data scientists, business analysts, developers, and researchers, this book is an invaluable and indispensable guide to the fundamental and advanced concepts of machine learning applied to time series modeling.

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Kathryn McKelvey Fashion Forecasting

Everyone in the fashion business needs to develop an essential survival skill: how to interpret the intelligence provided by the fashion forecasting industry, to anticipate and respond to emerging trends. Lavishly illustrated in full colour throughout, with clear and relevant explanations of the processes involved, Fashion Forecasting is for fashion students and young professionals who already have acquired some fashion knowledge and skills. The authors interviewed the key players within this exciting industry and provide here fascinating insights into the dynamic contemporary fashion forecasting world and the varied creative roles within it – from intelligence gatherers to project consultants. The book covers how a trend is sourced, anticipated and developed, and also explores the interaction with marketing and brand development.

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Michael D. Watkins The First 90 Days with Harvard Business Review article How Managers Become Leaders (2 Items)

This Harvard Business Review collection, featuring the work of celebrated author and advisor Michael D. Watkins on leadership transitions, includes the international bestseller The First 90 Days, Updated and Expanded as well as the 2012 Harvard Business Review article, “How Managers Become Leaders.”

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Faith Glasgow Small Business Finance All-in-One For Dummies

Keeping track of the finances is fundamental to the success of every business, but tackling the task yourself can be intimidating. Help is at hand, however, with this complete guide to small business money management. Packed with expert advice on all aspects of business finance, including basic bookkeeping and accounting, monitoring profit and performance, managing payroll, tackling tax, and forecasting for growth, Small Business Finance All-in-One For Dummies helps you to take control of your finances, stay on top of the paperwork, and keep the cash flowing.

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Michael Gerber E. The Most Successful Small Business in The World. The Ten Principles

A unique guide for the crucial start-up phase of a business So much attention goes to business practice and operation, yet the majority of ventures still fail. One area often overlooked is preparation. Too few entrepreneurs ask themselves, what are you supposed to do before you start your start-up? The Most Successful Small Business in The World gives you Michael E. Gerber's unique approach to thinking about the meaning of your company by applying his ten critical steps; a process you must go through long before you ever open your door. With these simple principles, based on expert Michael Gerber's years spent helping countless entrepreneurs, you'll take the essential first steps to lay the groundwork for building what Michael E. Gerber calls The Most Successful Small Business In the World! Author Michael Gerber has coached, taught, or trained more than 60,000 small businesses in 145 countries Free Webinar with Gerber for book purchasers Gerber's Ten Principles cover everything from defining the meaning of your company, teaching you how to think about systems, the importance of differentiation, perfecting the people within your business, acquiring clients, and more If you're ready to make your business dream more than just a reality, and resolve to do something bigger than you ever imagined, The Most Successful Small Business In The World will provide you with a stunningly original process for thinking yourself through it. Yes, you too can create The Most Successful Small Business In The World…Michael E. Gerber will show you exactly how to do it.

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The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating ...

The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions (SAS Institute Inc, Band 27) | Gilliland, Michael | ISBN: 9780470574430 | Kostenloser Versand für alle Bücher mit Versand und Verkauf duch Amazon.

Michael Gilliland - Associate Editor - Foresight: The ...

Michael Gilliland | Cary, North Carolina | Marketing Manager - SAS Forecasting | 500+ connections | See Michael's complete profile on Linkedin and connect

Michael Gilliland - KeyWiki

Michael Gilliland is a Tennessee activist. He has guided Chattanooga Organized for Action's transition from a small group of activists to a fully-fledged nonprofit. Michael has specialized in community and labor partnerships and is a co-founder of Chattanooga for Workers.. Michael has worked in nearly every Chattanooga Organized for Action initiative since joining the organization in 2012, and ...

Michael Gilliland — Footprint Foundation

Michael Gilliland. Michael is the community organizer for Chattanoogans in Action for Love, Equity, and Benevolence (CALEB), a nonprofit built of member organizations including faith groups, labor unions and community organizations who seek for their members to have a greater effect in the public sphere. In 2018, CALEB launched the Hamilton County Community Bail Fund to secure jail release for ...

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Michael Gilliland was born in 1840 in Washington County, Virginia to a middle-class family. His parents were John Keys Gilliland and Rachel Van Huss (1). John Keys Gilliland, his father, was born in 1801 in Virginia and he was the son of James Gilliland and Martha Keys. Rachel Van Huss was also born in Virginia, around 1810. John and Rachel got ...

Sunflower Farmers Market - Wikipedia

She was President and CEO from 2002-2005. In 2006 Mike Gilliland became CEO. He, along with Cook co-founded Wild Oats Markets and together grew the company from a single store in Boulder, Colorado to a billion-dollar publicly traded enterprise with 115 stores throughout the US and Canada.

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Michael Gilliland Overview Michael Gilliland has been associated with eight companies, according to public records. The companies were formed over a thirty-six year period with the most recent being incorporated ten years ago in April of 2010. Zero of the companies are still active while the remaining eight are now listed as inactive. Background Report for Michael S. Gilliland. Includes Age ...

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Michael Gilliland (Author of Business Forecasting)

Michael Gilliland is the author of The Business Forecasting Deal (4.31 avg rating, 16 ratings, 2 reviews, published 2010), The Business Forecasting Deal ...

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The Business Forecasting Deal (eBook, PDF) von Michael ...

Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of businessforecasting Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practicalsolutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you howto think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty,randomness and process performance.

Michael Gilliland Obituary (1952 - 2019) | Hopkinsville ...

We are sad to announce that on October 21, 2019, at the age of 67, Michael Gilliland (Hopkinsville, Kentucky) passed away. Family and friends can send flowers and condolences in memory of the loved one. Leave a sympathy message to the family on the memorial page of Michael Gilliland to pay them a last tribute.

The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating ...

The Business Forecasting Deal, by Michael Gilliland, is one of them. The book is among the rare ones providing real practical advices for professionals. No theory, no equation, no code. The book focuses on typical forecasting challenges, misconceptions and issues when deploying processes into production. The main point of the author is not to spend to much effort on forecasting, but rather on ...

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Michael Gilliland - YouTube

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Michael Gilliland Gilliland $49.95 USA / $59.95 CAN THEExposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions BUSINESS FORECASTING DEAL Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions Business forecasting is the ultimate no-win game. You’re almost always wrong—except on those rare, random occasions where actual sales come in exactly on forecast ...

Michael Gilliland (D), 54 - Spring Hill, KS Background ...

Summary: Michael Gilliland was born on 12/11/1965 and is 54 years old. Michael Gilliland currently lives in Spring Hill, KS; in the past Michael has also lived in Shawnee KS and Lenexa KS. Sometimes Michael goes by various nicknames including Michael D Gilliland, Michael D Gilland and Mike Gilliand.

C. Michael Gilliland | Washington, D.C. | Hogan Lovells

Mike Gilliland helps clients get federal funding for projects, programs, and research. As a leader of the firm's federal funding and appropriations practice for over 25 years, Mike has designed and implemented strategies to secure millions of dollars in federal funds for hundreds of projects.

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Michael Gilliland Phone, Address, & Email Records ...

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Michael Gilliland in Indiana (IN) | 7 records found ...

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Michael Gilliland - Phone, Address, Background info ...

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Michael Gilliland, Author at Demand Planning

Interviewer: Michael Gilliland, SAS This month’s interview is with Steve Morlidge of CatchBull. Steve has 30 years of practical experience in designing and running performance management systems at Unilever, and is the author of Future Ready: How t...

Michael Gilliland in Liberty, IN - Bizapedia Profile

Michael W Gilliland is listed as an Agent with Presidential Enterprises, LLC in Indiana. The address on file for this person is 3448 W Old Brownsville Rd, Liberty, IN 47353 in Union County. The company is a Indiana Domestic Limited-Liability Company, which was filed on October 25, 2000.

Michael Lloyd Gilliland - IMDb

Michael Lloyd Gilliland, Stunts: Timelock. Michael Lloyd Gilliland is known for his work on Timelock (1996), CSI: Crime Scene Investigation (2000) and The Clearing (2020).


michael gilliland'sthe business forecasting deal: exposing myths, eliminating bad practices, providing practical solutions (wiley and sas business series) [hardcover](2010) by m. gilliland.

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Michael Matthew Gilliland (1916-2013) - Find A Grave Memorial

Mr. Michael Matthew Gilliland 96, of Hallsboro died Wednesday, February 27, 2013 in Lower Cape Fear Hospice Angel House, Whiteville. He was the widower of the late Velma Kathleen Long Gilliland. He was born March 31, 1916 in Mississippi the son of the late Ben Gilliland and Lunar Fostina Irving Gilliland to a family...

Lewis Michael Gilliland (1949-2010) - Find A Grave Memorial

Lewis Michael Gilliland, 61, of Nesbit, Mississippi, formerly of Sikeston, died Saturday, May 29, 2010 at the Select Specialty Hospital in Memphis, Tenn. Born April 18, 1949, in Sikeston, to Lewis N. Bud and Helen I. Minner Gilliland of Sikeston, he was a fleet manager for MTS Trucking Co. He was a 1969 graduate of...

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Mike Gilliland, Author at SAS Blogs

Michael Gilliland is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (the book), editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions, and Associate Editor of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. He is a longtime business forecasting practitioner, and currently Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting software. Mike serves on the Board of Directors of the ...

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Michael Port Beyond Booked Solid. Your Business, Your Life, Your Way--It's All Inside

In Beyond Booked Solid, Michael Port returns with new tactics for growing your business even bigger. Port's Book Yourself Solid was a huge hit among professional service providers and small business owners who learned to master the art of attracting clients and keeping them happy. In this book, he helps your business keep growing by taking the next step, beyond booked solid. That means maximizing your business while working less and earning more. This is the ultimate guide for your growing business.

2860.85 RUR

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Bovas Abraham Statistical Methods for Forecasting

The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. «This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: 'Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.' It does just that!» -Journal of the Royal Statistical Society «A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series analysis by PhD students; or to support a concentration in quantitative methods for MBA students; or as a work in applied statistics for advanced undergraduates.» -Choice Statistical Methods for Forecasting is a comprehensive, readable treatment of statistical methods and models used to produce short-term forecasts. The interconnections between the forecasting models and methods are thoroughly explained, and the gap between theory and practice is successfully bridged. Special topics are discussed, such as transfer function modeling; Kalman filtering; state space models; Bayesian forecasting; and methods for forecast evaluation, comparison, and control. The book provides time series, autocorrelation, and partial autocorrelation plots, as well as examples and exercises using real data. Statistical Methods for Forecasting serves as an outstanding textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses in statistics, business, engineering, and the social sciences, as well as a working reference for professionals in business, industry, and government.

14260.21 RUR

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Группа авторов Profit From Your Forecasting Software

Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.

4396.9 RUR

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Группа авторов Advances in DEA Theory and Applications

A key resource and framework for assessing the performance of competing entities, including forecasting models Advances in DEA Theory and Applications provides a much-needed framework for assessing the performance of competing entities with special emphasis on forecasting models. It helps readers to determine the most appropriate methodology in order to make the most accurate decisions for implementation. Written by a noted expert in the field, this text provides a review of the latest advances in DEA theory and applications to the field of forecasting. Designed for use by anyone involved in research in the field of forecasting or in another application area where forecasting drives decision making, this text can be applied to a wide range of contexts, including education, health care, banking, armed forces, auditing, market research, retail outlets, organizational effectiveness, transportation, public housing, and manufacturing. This vital resource: Explores the latest developments in DEA frameworks for the performance evaluation of entities such as public or private organizational branches or departments, economic sectors, technologies, and stocks Presents a novel area of application for DEA; namely, the performance evaluation of forecasting models Promotes the use of DEA to assess the performance of forecasting models in a wide area of applications Provides rich, detailed examples and case studies Advances in DEA Theory and Applications includes information on a balanced benchmarking tool that is designed to help organizations examine their assumptions about their productivity and performance.

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Michael E. Gerber Most Successful Small Business in the World

John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D. SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition

To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series , intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.

4914.05 RUR

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Tracy Diane Colour Forecasting

The colour forecasting process is a major driving force in the fashion and textile industries but is complex, highly intuitive and little understood. This textbook for students of fashion and design discusses the development of the various driving forces of fashion, when colour forecasting began and how it has developed to its present day state. Colour terminology and some of the more subjective tools used by colour forecasters are explained, and their strengths and weaknesses are compared. Also, a model is given of the colour forecasting process and this is discussed in detail. Finally, readers are shown how forecasting methodologies are used to develop 'colour stories'.

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Группа авторов A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility

Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.

11971.54 RUR

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Группа авторов Finance for Managers

Harvard Business Essentials are comprehensive, solution-oriented paperbacks for business readers of all levels of experience. Calculating and assessing the overall financial health of the business is an important part of any managerial position. From reading and deciphering financial statements, to understanding net present value, to calculating return on investment, Finance for Managers provides the fundamentals of financial literacy. Easy to use and nontechnical, this helpful guide gives managers the smart advice they need to increase their impact on financial planning, budgeting, and forecasting.

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Conrad Carlberg Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies

Excel at predicting sales and forecasting trends using Microsoft Excel! If you're a sales or marketing professional, you know that forecasting sales is one of the biggest challenges you face on the job. Unlike other books on the subject, Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies, 2nd Edition leaves arcane business school terms and complex algebraic equations at the door, focusing instead on what you can do right now to utilize the world's most popular spreadsheet program to produce forecasts you can rely on. Loaded with confidence boosters for anyone who succumbs to sweaty palms when sales predictions are mentioned, this trusted guide show you how to use the many tools Excel provides to arrange your past data, set up lists and pivot tables, use moving averages, and so much more. Before you know it, you'll become a forecaster par excellence—even if numbers aren't your jam. Choose the right forecasting method Find relationships in your data Predict seasonal sales Filter lists or turn them into charts Consider this guide your crystal ball—and start predicting the future with confidence and ease!

2199.92 RUR

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